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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 9

Washington Commanders 21 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP