Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 21

(12:45) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 2 yards (38-J.Heath; 57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.83 EP
74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model