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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model