Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 75

Denver Broncos 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-J.Herndon MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 22, recovered by LAC-30-M.Daniels at LAC 22. 30-M.Daniels to LAC 22 for no gain (85-V.Green).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.31 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model