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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 17

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model