Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 92

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 7

(7:14) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 49 for 12 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 92, worth -5.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model