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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 51

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model