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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 5-M.Scifres punts 53 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 23 for 9 yards (39-D.Woodhead).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model