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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model