Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short middle to 10-D.Jennings to CLE 43 for 3 yards (55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.35 EP
58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -1.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model