Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Cleveland Browns 12

(2:09) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.13 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -2.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model