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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 25 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP