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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge to PIT 30 for 4 yards (20-W.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model