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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP