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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 3-J.Brown 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP