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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 91

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 47, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.25 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 91, worth -5.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.04 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 48, worth -3.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP