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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 44

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 69-T.Ott to NYG 45 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-9-B.Wing at NYG 45. 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to PHI 2, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model