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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 35 – New York Giants 30

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model