4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 38

New York Giants 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(:41) 9-B.Wing punts 29 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by NYG-25-T.Jacobs.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP