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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 39

New York Giants 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to PHI 3, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP