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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith right guard to LV 37 for 6 yards (24-C.Woodson).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.31 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model