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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.11 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP