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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 26-R.Helu up the middle to LV 40 for 3 yards (56-D.Johnson). PENALTY on KC-38-R.Parker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at LV 40.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model