Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model