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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 7-M.King punts 30 yards to KC 28, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model