Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(14:04) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-47-T.Gafford. 85-F.Hammond to KC 24 for 9 yards (31-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.07 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model