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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to LV 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP