Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(6:40) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to KC 24, Center-47-T.Gafford. 85-F.Hammond to KC 31 for 7 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model