Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 79

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(4:31) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-57-T.Reilly.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.68 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model