Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to NYJ 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 25 for 9 yards (51-K.Reddick). Return credited to NYJ 22 (spot of foul). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.McDougle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.65 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model