Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(9:41) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-58-E.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.96 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model