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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 16 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 2-D.Carpenter 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model