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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 79

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-W.Powell to BUF 45 for 16 yards (54-J.Lattimore, 57-T.Reilly).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 36, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model