Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 5 yards (20-C.Graham). PENALTY on BUF-15-C.Hogan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 25. C.Hogan ran out of bounds and did not immediately return in-bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.79 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model