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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 22

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model