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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-29-K.Williams was injured during the play. He is Out. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO +4.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.55 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +1.68 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth +0.10 EP
PUNT +0.90 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model