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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 6-S.Graham 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.12 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model