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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ATL 24, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.78 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model