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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to NO 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP