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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to NO 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-T.Cadet.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model