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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead to ATL 17 for no gain (23-R.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.47 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model