4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 6-S.Graham 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-C.Jordan), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model