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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model