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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.32 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model