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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 1

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP