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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right tackle to NE 39 for no gain (91-J.Collins; 97-A.Branch).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model