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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 67

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 22 for 11 yards (52-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model