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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.97 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model