Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 10

(11:21) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 56 yards to NE 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 82-K.Martin to NE 33 for 10 yards (28-Bo.McCain).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model