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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to NE 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 82-K.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model